Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

81 0x816d…47d0 weather 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$42 (+11%) realized +$37 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate73%11W / 4L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day11.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)-4.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+5.4%	-4.6%	73%	73%	+9.3%
≤30d	15	+5.4%	-4.6%	73%	73%	+9.3%
≤90d	15	+5.4%	-4.6%	73%	73%	+9.3%
all	15	+5.4%	-4.6%	73%	73%	+9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.6%	73%	+9.3%
10%	-13.7%	60%	-1.2%
15%	-22.1%	20%	-10.7%
20%	-29.7%	7%	-19.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 28% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.17 per $1 lost it wins $5.17

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$95

Realized+$37

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses11 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage3d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day11.1

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20?	No	93¢	98¢	$90	$95	+$5 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June	Jun 20	$30	+$11	+36%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20?	Jun 20	$40	+$9	+24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20?	Jun 20	$30	+$6	+19%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20?	Jun 20	$30	+$7	+24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19?	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-82%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19?	Jun 20	$5	−$3	-67%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19?	Jun 19	$25	+$6	+24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19?	Jun 19	$20	+$6	+28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19?	Jun 19	$30	+$6	+19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$15	+$10	+63%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$5	$0	-0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17?	Jun 18	$15	+$4	+26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17?	Jun 18	$10	+$3	+32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17?	Jun 18	$17	+$6	+35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20?	BUY No	93¢	$90	7m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June	SELL No	100¢	$41	39m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20?	SELL No	100¢	$50	40m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20?	BUY No	80¢	$40	1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20?	SELL No	99¢	$36	1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June	BUY No	72¢	$30	1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20?	BUY No	82¢	$30	1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19?	SELL Yes	3¢	$0	20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19?	SELL No	10¢	$2	20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19?	BUY No	28¢	$5	21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	21h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20?	BUY Yes	80¢	$30	23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19?	SELL No	99¢	$31	23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19?	BUY No	79¢	$25	23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19?	SELL No	100¢	$26	24h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19?	BUY No	77¢	$20	24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19?	SELL No	100¢	$36	25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19?	BUY No	83¢	$30	25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	95¢	$25	39h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	39h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	50¢	$0	39h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	60¢	$5	39h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	39h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	40h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	40h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17?	SELL Yes	99¢	$13	2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$23	2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17?	BUY Yes	74¢	$10	2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17?	SELL Yes	29¢	$7	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.31 · official $95.31 (match) · 35 history records