Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8170…ccd1 other 23 markets active 18h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$164 (-16%) realized −$179 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$40
sports 15% −$30
world 10% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -10.8% -19.3% 33% 33% -27.4%
≤30d 21 -10.8% -19.3% 33% 33% -27.4%
≤90d 21 -10.8% -19.3% 33% 33% -27.4%
all 21 -10.8% -19.3% 33% 33% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 33% -27.4%
10% -27.0% 33% -34.3%
15% -34.1% 33% -40.7%
20% -40.5% 29% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$39 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +324%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 18h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.89 · official $124.89 (match) · 35 history records