Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x817a…0a90 other 1442 markets active 1h ago coverage 740d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,428 (-10%) realized −$1,406 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%514W / 882L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$221
7 days+$119
14 days−$37
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$702
sports 36% −$742
world 2% +$42
politics 1% −$145
crypto 1% −$76
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +8.7% -1.6% 48% 47% -4.0%
≤30d 219 +2.2% -7.6% 47% 47% -6.5%
≤90d 396 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 45% -14.3%
all 1396 -7.8% -16.6% 37% 37% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 37% -20.7%
10% -24.6% 36% -28.3%
15% -31.8% 35% -35.2%
20% -38.5% 32% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

740d coverage
Net worth$588
Realized−$1,406
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses514 / 882
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1396 / 1442
History coverage740d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $185 $187 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $76 $81 +$5 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $59 $54 −$5 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $43 $51 +$8 (+19%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 34¢ 36¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $30 $20 −$9 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-30%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Over 69¢ 30¢ $17 $8 −$10 (-56%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 21¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 −$11 -82%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $68 −$43 -63%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $79 −$45 -57%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $11 −$9 -85%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $37 +$15 +40%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $33 +$38 +114%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $23 −$13 -57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $16 −$11 -68%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 −$2 -75%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$7 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 −$15 -53%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 −$6 -73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $13 +$7 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 +$3 +105%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2 +$3 +130%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $83 +$20 +24%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $8 +$6 +72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $19 +$5 +29%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 +$34 +59%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$5 -58%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 +$10 +54%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 +$5 +131%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$7 -64%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $6 +$5 +86%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 32m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $33 32m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 39m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 34¢ $48 40m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $187 42m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $67 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 13¢ $19 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Uruguay 3¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 13¢ $8 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $37 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $11 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $8 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $18 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 73¢ $15 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 42¢ $17 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $22 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $33 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $46 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $13 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 56¢ $12 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $588.14 · official $588.14 (match) · 3391 history records