Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
81 0x817a…389e crypto 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$553 (-3%) realized −$480 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%128W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$147
14 days+$147
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$629
other 14% +$515
sports 7% −$392
world 6% −$518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 42% -1.2%
≤30d 24 -23.4% -30.7% 42% 38% -19.8%
≤90d 246 -9.2% -17.9% 52% 35% -13.9%
all 246 -9.2% -17.9% 52% 35% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 35% -13.9%
10% -25.7% 29% -22.2%
15% -32.9% 24% -29.7%
20% -39.5% 17% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$51 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$480
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses128 / 118
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage73d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 22¢ $127 $54 −$73 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $109 +$20 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $496 +$220 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $248 +$222 +89%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $216 −$198 -92%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $25 −$3 -11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $76 −$3 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $204 −$111 -55%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $94 −$91 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $281 −$276 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 27 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 27 $25 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 27 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 27 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 27 $77 −$53 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 26 $36 −$18 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 26 $28 −$25 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 26 $23 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 16 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 15 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 15 $46 −$16 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $11 −$10 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 07 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 07 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 07 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 07 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 07 $5 +$9 +175%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $455 −$198 -44%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $206 −$201 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Kor May 05 $50 −$25 -49%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $361 +$538 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 27 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 27 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 27 $8 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 27 $24 −$13 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 27 $12 +$7 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $129 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $109 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 74¢ $78 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $190 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $339 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $39 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $70 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $496 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $470 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $248 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $216 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $73 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $76 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $92 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $94 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $204 6d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $281 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.55 · official $53.55 (match) · 721 history records