Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x817f…4a58 other 104 markets active 5h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$317 (+16%) realized +$312 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%36W / 61L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$124
14 days+$240
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$143
sports 22% +$174
crypto 4% −$28
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -17.2% -25.0% 33% 33% +5.9%
≤30d 54 -0.7% -10.2% 39% 39% +7.2%
≤90d 97 -3.1% -12.3% 37% 37% +6.4%
all 97 -3.1% -12.3% 37% 37% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 37% +6.4%
10% -20.7% 36% -3.8%
15% -28.4% 35% -13.1%
20% -35.4% 33% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$10 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses36 / 61
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)97 / 104
History coverage42d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 64¢ $78 $80 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 39¢ 40¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 +$15 +504%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$18 +44%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -35%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -28%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -28%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 +$17 +42%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 +$44 +56%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$6 +277%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $35 +$20 +58%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $105 +$56 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$25 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$21 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 +$38 +107%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$46 +132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$25 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$29 +95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$45 +223%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 +$51 +170%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$52 +259%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$24 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $40 4h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $20 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 59¢ $38 5h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $40 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 11h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $40 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 11h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $40 28h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $40 33h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.06 · official $317.06 (match) · 182 history records