Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8181…9647
sports · 59 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$95 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$17
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage227d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 1 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 34¢ 56¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jazz 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? No $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Hornets Hornets 37¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Knicks Rockets 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Movistar KOI 54¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Lakers Lakers 17¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs Dplus KIA 14¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 28¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 32¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Pistons Lakers 49¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs LGD Gaming $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs FlyQuest RED 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs EDward Gaming $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Lakers 24¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 53¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Wizards Wizards 18¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Pistons Celtics 23¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Timberwolves 29¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner T1 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +160%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +78%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $4 $0 +12%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $1 +$1 +127%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$1 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $5 −$3 -64%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $8 −$4 -50%
Celtics vs. Lakers Feb 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Hornets vs. Wizards Feb 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pacers Feb 23 $15 −$14 -96%
Rockets vs. Knicks Feb 22 $6 +$4 +70%
Kings vs. Spurs Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Feb 22 $15 +$25 +168%
Magic vs. Suns Feb 22 $1 $0 -38%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 21 $35 −$7 -20%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Feb 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 21 $8 −$1 -17%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 21 $5 +$1 +30%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 20 $11 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Feb 20 $2 −$1 -40%
Raptors vs. Bulls Feb 20 $16 +$16 +105%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Pacers vs. 76ers Jan 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Jan 19 $4 +$3 +88%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jan 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jan 18 $1 +$1 +61%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Wizards vs. Nuggets Jan 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jan 17 $1 +$2 +195%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$90
other 5% −$1
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 34¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 32¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 24¢ $5 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $3 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 19h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $13 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 24¢ $1 7d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 54¢ $2 7d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 28¢ $3 8d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $1 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming $1 9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming $1 9d
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan BUY FlyQuest RED 10¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $2 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 55¢ $1 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 41¢ $1 10d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming $1 11d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 32¢ $1 11d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 25¢ $4 11d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming $1 11d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 27¢ $1 12d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 37¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -56.6% -60.7% 17% 17% -25.4%
≤30d 20 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 25% -48.3%
≤90d 22 -52.5% -57.0% 23% 23% -56.6%
all 58 -31.4% -38.0% 29% 29% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 29% -42.6%
10% -43.9% 29% -48.1%
15% -49.3% 26% -53.1%
20% -54.3% 24% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.62 · official $16.62 (match) · 125 history records