Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8183…5216 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$10
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$61
other 17% −$6
crypto 8% +$2
politics 1% $0
sports 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 +24.2% +12.4% 36% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 31 +16.4% +5.3% 35% 3% -10.0%
all 53 +9.2% -1.2% 30% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 2% -9.9%
10% -10.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -19.3% 2% -26.4%
20% -27.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$633) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage334d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 57¢ $553 $558 +$5 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 42¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $650 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $633 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $104 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $200 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $637 −$8 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $647 +$2 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $232 +$5 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $63 −$8 -13%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $597 +$16 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $629 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $892 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $651 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $880 +$6 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $628 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $592 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $662 −$26 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $19 −$2 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $662 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $869 −$18 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $653 +$2 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $24 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $303 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $90 −$19 -21%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $658 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $648 −$16 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $324 −$5 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $104 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $666 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 23 $1,432 +$2 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Mar 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 11 $7 $0 -2%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 10 $3 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 09 $4 −$1 -13%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 09 $119 −$4 -3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 09 $130 +$1 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Mar 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $16 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $537 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $63 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $100 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $75 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $101 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $106 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $80 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $113 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $632 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $179 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $231 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $84 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $79 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $60 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $633 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $107 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $104 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $85 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $96 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $200 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $262 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $75 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $66 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $44 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $82 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $30 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.23 · official $558.33 (match) · 368 history records