Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8184…68b4 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$13
politics 34% −$16
economics 5% −$1
sports 4% −$21
world 3% +$174
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 104 -4.4% -13.5% 7% 4% -9.1%
all 116 -4.1% -13.2% 11% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 7% -9.1%
10% -21.5% 3% -17.8%
15% -29.1% 1% -25.7%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1 · ×17.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage115d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $187 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $159 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $226 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $233 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $680 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $415 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $618 −$5 -1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $422 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $339 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $182 +$175 +96%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $164 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $358 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $396 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $376 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $217 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $176 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 24h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 5d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $38 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 20d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 20d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 20d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $187 22d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $159 22d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 23d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $226 23d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $226 23d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 24d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $219 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $219 25d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $177 26d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $177 26d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 27d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 27d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 27d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 28d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.