Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
81 0x8187…9d44 other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$208 (+11%) realized +$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%38W / 26L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days+$229
14 days+$462
30 days+$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$222
sports 40% +$114
crypto 5% +$79
tech 4% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +21.0% +9.4% 55% 55% +6.8%
≤30d 64 +28.2% +16.0% 59% 58% +15.0%
≤90d 64 +28.2% +16.0% 59% 58% +15.0%
all 64 +28.2% +16.0% 59% 58% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.0% 58% +15.0%
10% +4.9% 56% +4.0%
15% -5.2% 53% -6.1%
20% -14.5% 42% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$23 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses38 / 26
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 71
History coverage14d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$28 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and H Jun 25 $31 +$81 +265%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$15 -50%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $31 −$20 -65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $10 +$37 +365%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$17 +55%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $21 +$14 +65%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $29 +$36 +124%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $15 +$48 +314%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arg Jun 23 $25 +$41 +161%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 +29%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $0 $0 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$41 +146%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$15 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $31 +$87 +285%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$16 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $31 +$59 +194%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$32 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 32¢ $15 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 4h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 14¢ $11 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 14h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $31 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $30 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $30 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and H BUY 27¢ $31 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 15¢ $31 21h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $39 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 25h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $31 27h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 28h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 47¢ $74 37h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $21 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 66¢ $30 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 44h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $30 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 28¢ $31 44h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co BUY 27¢ $31 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 22¢ $1 46h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $31 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $0 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records