Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x818a…f815 world 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$133 (+1%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%37W / 50L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$66
14 days+$69
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$153
other 14% −$4
politics 1% $0
finance 1% −$10
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 12% -7.1%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 37 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 8% -8.2%
all 87 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -8.2%
10% -18.6% 1% -17.0%
15% -26.5% 1% -25.0%
20% -33.7% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses37 / 50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage476d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $275 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $350 +$2 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $426 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $278 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $282 −$4 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $560 +$70 +13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $282 +$4 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $66 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $62 +$7 +12%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $441 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $352 −$7 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $227 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $958 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $111 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $325 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $207 −$6 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $225 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $413 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $453 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $503 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $339 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $210 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $221 +$4 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $201 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $220 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $80 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $218 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $116 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $145 −$10 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $75 −$10 -13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $216 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $170 +$91 +54%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $81 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $16 −$4 -21%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 -22%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $128 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $72 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $73 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $275 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $65 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $26 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $116 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $92 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $187 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $278 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $136 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $66 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $75 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $159 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $119 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $81 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $128 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $69 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $74 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $208 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 357 history records