Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:57:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x818b…1646 weather 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized −$148 · open +$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%103W / 142L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$70
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$343
weather 20% +$216
sports 14% +$101
finance 6% −$100
other 5% −$103
politics 2% −$28
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.7% -19.2% 20% 20% -7.9%
≤30d 148 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 46% -9.1%
≤90d 201 -4.2% -13.4% 46% 41% -9.2%
all 245 -4.1% -13.2% 42% 37% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 37% -11.0%
10% -21.5% 36% -19.5%
15% -29.1% 33% -27.3%
20% -36.0% 32% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$36 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$1,515
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$157
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses103 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions13
Markets (closed)245 / 258
History coverage195d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $448 $420 −$28 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $230 $345 +$115 (+50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $200 $305 +$105 (+52%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $130 $125 −$5 (-4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $84 +$292 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 19 $216 −$216 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $36 +$63 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $56 +$44 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $54 +$45 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $28 +$45 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $58 +$42 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$30 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $55 +$45 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $57 +$43 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$9 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 +$17 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 +$60 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $52 −$51 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $46 −$45 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $44 −$43 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$7 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $32 −$31 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $58 −$57 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $52 +$48 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $54 +$42 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $49 +$51 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $54 +$46 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$50 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $53 +$47 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $38 +$62 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $55 +$45 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $52 +$48 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $44 −$41 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $48 −$48 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$54 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$54 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $54 −$53 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $466 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $134 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $377 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $84 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $20 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $1 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $195 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $237 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 7d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 14d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,515.00 · official $1,515.00 (match) · 1192 history records