Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x818b…7c6b other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147 (-8%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$94
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$21
other 37% −$165
politics 24% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 12% -16.7%
≤90d 8 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 12% -16.7%
all 8 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 12% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 12% -16.7%
10% -37.4% 12% -24.7%
15% -43.5% 0% -32.0%
20% -49.0% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$42 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 24 $455 −$3 -1%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 24 $460 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 15 $318 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 13 $312 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 11 $78 −$10 -12%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $82 +$20 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records