trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Kash Patel out by May 31? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 03 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? | May 03 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | May 03 | $1 | $0 | +47% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti | Apr 30 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +5.3% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -27.2% | -34.1% | 67% | 33% | -26.8% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 86% | 57% | -7.8% |
| all | 7 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 86% | 57% | -7.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 57% | -7.8% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 14% | -16.6% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 14% | -24.6% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 0% | -32.0% |