Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8191…3868 world 129 markets active 3d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,112 (-5%) realized −$4,118 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate19%22W / 94L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$307est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$174
30 days−$3,235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$193
sports 17% −$1,243
other 12% −$1,102
politics 10% −$1,334
finance 8% −$492
crypto 5% −$138
economics 1% −$143
tech 1% −$24
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 84 +4.6% -5.4% 13% 2% -15.3%
≤90d 114 -1.9% -11.2% 18% 7% -16.2%
all 116 -2.2% -11.5% 19% 8% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 8% -16.2%
10% -20.0% 3% -24.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 3% -31.5%
20% -34.8% 2% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$561) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$67 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$4,118
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$307
Open positions13
Markets (closed)116 / 129
History coverage101d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 15 $232 −$15 -7%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? Jun 08 $211 −$7 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 08 $2,818 −$151 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $132 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $227 −$9 -4%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 01 $403 −$7 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $90 +$10 +10%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $108 −$1 -1%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 30 $144 −$14 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $179 +$6 +3%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $152 −$18 -12%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? May 28 $110 −$16 -14%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $545 −$22 -4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 27 $95 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $151 −$9 -6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $87 −$2 -2%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 26 $400 −$43 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $1,335 −$94 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $3,891 −$7 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $955 −$37 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $295 −$18 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $799 −$4 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 25 $107 −$12 -11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 25 $204 −$78 -38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $86 +$11 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $573 −$64 -11%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $259 −$12 -4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 24 $437 −$31 -7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $176 −$10 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2,851 −$36 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 24 $1,506 −$92 -6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $643 −$67 -10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 24 $86 −$5 -5%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 23 $725 −$84 -12%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 23 $195 −$53 -27%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 23 $1,096 −$178 -16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 23 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $542 −$140 -26%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? May 23 $107 −$18 -17%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? May 23 $118 −$30 -25%
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? May 23 $235 −$114 -49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? May 23 $114 −$7 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? May 23 $130 −$7 -5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $552 −$121 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $1,767 −$50 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 22 $810 −$109 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $701 −$66 -10%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 22 $99 −$11 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $1,441 −$21 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.34 · official $132.54 · 3099 history records