Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
81 0x8194…d0d0 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$19 (+26%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +20.4%
≤30d 6 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +20.4%
≤90d 6 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +20.4%
all 6 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.1% 67% +20.4%
10% +14.0% 67% +8.8%
15% +3.0% 67% -1.7%
20% -7.1% 67% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 42¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$15 +178%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $8 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $10 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $23 42h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 44h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 93¢ $18 46h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $10 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.81 · official $17.81 (match) · 13 history records