Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x8194…5368 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$177 (+15%) realized +$177 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%53W / 52L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$184
14 days+$147
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$62
crypto 27% +$103
other 15% −$17
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -2.5% -11.8% 48% 45% +13.7%
≤30d 105 -4.6% -13.6% 50% 38% +1.9%
≤90d 105 -4.6% -13.6% 50% 38% +1.9%
all 105 -4.6% -13.6% 50% 38% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 38% +1.9%
10% -21.9% 34% -7.9%
15% -29.5% 26% -16.8%
20% -36.4% 20% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses53 / 52
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)105 / 113
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 25¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$83 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$72 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $1 $0 +27%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $69 +$23 +34%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$2 -36%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $49 +$22 +44%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $11 −$7 -66%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $38 +$25 +64%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Tunisia Jun 26 $6 +$13 +218%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$13 +63%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 25 $3 +$4 +119%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $3 +$5 +158%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $8 −$7 -82%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $8 +$3 +34%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $8 +$9 +109%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 +$8 +152%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$3 -53%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 $0 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$4 -71%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $18 +$6 +33%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2 $0 -20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -61%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $6 −$5 -84%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $8 −$5 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $72 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 11h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 12h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 45¢ $3 12h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $3 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 12h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 13h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 13h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $92 13h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 14h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $69 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 16h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $71 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.80 · official $10.80 (match) · 211 history records