Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
81 0x8196…1dec other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$396 (+42%) realized +$397 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$535
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+67.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +85.0% +67.4% 100% 100% +91.6%
≤30d 4 +85.0% +67.4% 100% 100% +91.6%
≤90d 4 +85.0% +67.4% 100% 100% +91.6%
all 4 +85.0% +67.4% 100% 100% +91.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +67.4% 100% +91.6%
10% +51.4% 100% +73.3%
15% +36.7% 100% +56.5%
20% +23.3% 75% +41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +112% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt +112% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$397
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $42 +$26 +61%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $153 +$183 +120%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$8 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $264 +$320 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 34¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL 99¢ $335 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 44¢ $153 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 47¢ $152 23h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 27¢ $51 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $585 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $264 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.53 · official $248.53 · 12 history records