Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x819b…d996
other · 4 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$3,303 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,723 · open −$5,027
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73
Realized+$1,723
Unrealized−$5,027
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,097
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,724
7 days+$1,724
14 days+$1,724
30 days+$1,724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5,100 $73 −$5,027 (-99%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,020 +$830 +81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,024 +$994 +49%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% −$4,133
sports 12% +$830
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 3¢ $3,088 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,027 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,022 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,850 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 90¢ $3,018 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $1,013 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 8h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,020 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 61¢ $1,012 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 67% +40.1%
≤30d 3 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 67% +40.1%
≤90d 3 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 67% +40.1%
all 3 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 67% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 67% +40.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 67% +26.7%
15% -18.6% 67% +14.4%
20% -26.6% 33% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.86 · official $72.86 (match) · 10 history records