Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x81a2…a062 crypto 1088 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2075 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$1,344 (-25%) realized −$1,353 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate86%1043W / 164L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2074.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$763
other 9% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2075 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1207 +68.9% +52.8% 86% 76% +14.4%
≤30d 1207 +68.9% +52.8% 86% 76% +14.4%
≤90d 1207 +68.9% +52.8% 86% 76% +14.4%
all 1207 +68.9% +52.8% 86% 76% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2074.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.8% 76% +14.4%
10% ← realistic here +38.2% 74% +3.5%
15% +24.9% 70% -6.5%
20% +12.6% 68% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +95% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized−$1,353
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1043 / 164
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1207 / 1088
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2074.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+101%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 52¢ 57¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 48¢ 42¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+103%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+104%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 48¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 49¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 49¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$10 +92%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$10 +547%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$5 +100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$3 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$3 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$3 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$3 +104%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$3 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$3 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$2 +100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +108%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +108%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +113%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +108%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 5m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.32 · official $164.84 · 3500 history records