Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81a6…070f
weather · 1090 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$67 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses373 / 653
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1026 / 1090
History coverage103d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 1026 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$47
14 days+$104
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 52¢ 96¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 18? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 29? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$19 +320%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$8 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$7 +339%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$9 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$8 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$46
crypto 5% −$17
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +18.5% +7.2% 48% 48% +14.3%
≤30d 414 -7.8% -16.6% 18% 18% -10.5%
≤90d 1009 -11.9% -20.3% 36% 21% -15.1%
all 1026 -11.7% -20.1% 36% 22% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 22% -15.1%
10% -27.8% 16% -23.2%
15% -34.7% 14% -30.6%
20% -41.1% 11% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.40 · official $39.40 (match) · 1816 history records