Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81a6…72c0 crypto 127 markets active 5d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate82%104W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -3.0% -12.2% 82% 82% -12.0%
≤30d 127 -1.9% -11.3% 82% 81% -11.1%
≤90d 127 -1.9% -11.3% 82% 81% -11.1%
all 127 -1.9% -11.3% 82% 81% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 81% -11.1%
10% -19.8% 20% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 4% -27.3%
20% -34.6% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses104 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records