Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81a8…9c69
sports · 364 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$3,980 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,757 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$305
Realized+$3,757
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses182 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$290
Open positions2
Markets (closed)362 / 364
History coverage53d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 2 History 362 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$984
7 days+$1,434
14 days+$3,213
30 days+$4,831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 62¢ $301 $299 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 41¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $190 −$3 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $289 −$288 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $209 +$289 +138%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $143 −$128 -89%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $70 +$60 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $467 +$634 +136%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $268 +$231 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 +$59 +426%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $361 +$203 +56%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $67 −$66 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $58 +$17 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 −$254 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $276 +$117 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $356 +$398 +112%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $152 +$70 +46%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $17 +$4 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $73 +$58 +79%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $122 +$116 +95%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $80 +$58 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $145 +$118 +82%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 10 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $82 −$82 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $156 +$58 +37%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $88 +$52 +60%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $95 +$117 +122%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $27 +$29 +109%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $178 +$226 +127%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 08 $109 +$49 +45%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $656 +$179 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% +$459
other 47% +$3,221
crypto 1% +$75
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 46¢ $186 2m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $190 5m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $6 47m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $305 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 42¢ $209 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $67 10h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $2 13h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 63¢ $1 13h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $289 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 36¢ $62 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 36¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 41¢ $67 15h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 64¢ $306 17h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 64¢ $2 17h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 64¢ $53 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 18h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 40¢ $82 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $27 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $294 24h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 75¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 79¢ $14 27h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 76¢ $43 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $14 30h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $4 36h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $276 36h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $27 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $69 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 44% +7.0%
≤30d 228 +0.9% -8.7% 51% 51% +5.7%
≤90d 362 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -1.9%
all 362 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 50% -1.9%
10% -18.4% 49% -11.3%
15% -26.2% 44% -19.9%
20% -33.5% 37% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.19 · official $305.19 (match) · 1360 history records