Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x81b0…5159 sports 521 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$520 (+3%) realized +$521 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%195W / 310L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$593
14 days−$642
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$154
other 32% +$642
world 1% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +16.9% +5.8% 33% 33% -41.0%
≤30d 85 +26.8% +14.7% 44% 44% -16.9%
≤90d 355 +6.9% -3.3% 39% 39% -10.5%
all 505 +5.5% -4.5% 39% 38% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 38% -6.9%
10% -13.7% 37% -15.8%
15% -22.0% 37% -23.9%
20% -29.6% 37% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$22 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized+$521
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses195 / 310
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions12
Markets (closed)505 / 521
History coverage115d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $102 $92 −$10 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $47 $52 +$4 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11 $22 +$11 (+97%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $21 −$7 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+10%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+41%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $4 −$12 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $51 −$5 -11%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $4 +$21 +550%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$26 +109%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 +$24 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$31 +165%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $52 −$51 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 +$14 +90%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 −$8 -34%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$59 +146%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $17 −$4 -23%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 +$18 +257%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $28 −$15 -56%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $178 −$178 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $18 −$3 -14%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$29 +134%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$31 +158%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$39 +344%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $23 +$27 +119%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $49 +$30 +61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 $0 -3%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay w Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 −$13 -35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$22 -78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 −$21 -47%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $50 −$35 -69%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $79 −$46 -58%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $48 +$25 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti 46¢ $45 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 50¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $19 21h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 45h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $16 46h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $16 46h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY 13¢ $10 47h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 31¢ $15 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $23 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 31¢ $15 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.37 · official $396.43 (match) · 1313 history records