Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81ba…1080 other 151 markets active 2d ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$121 (-4%) realized −$122 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%47W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$72
crypto 14% −$121
world 13% +$55
sports 6% +$79
politics 3% −$31
economics 2% −$9
tech 1% −$8
finance 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 50% -9.9%
≤30d 10 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 40% -16.5%
≤90d 46 -72.3% -75.0% 13% 11% -75.8%
all 134 -4.7% -13.7% 35% 26% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 26% -13.7%
10% -22.0% 22% -22.0%
15% -29.5% 16% -29.5%
20% -36.4% 13% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses47 / 87
Open positions16
Markets (closed)134 / 151
History coverage562d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 24 $3 −$1 -37%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $5 −$4 -86%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 24 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $51 −$27 -53%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -33%
Lighter Airdrop on December 17? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conferenc Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 23? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 15? Apr 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 24? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 22? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Linea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 18? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 -5%
WLFI >$35B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15? Apr 06 $87 −$78 -89%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 15? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Apr 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $3 +$1 +31%
Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition Feb 28 $5 +$9 +163%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $6 +$15 +257%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $88 +$9 +11%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $10 −$9 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 15d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.91 · official $90.91 (match) · 388 history records