Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81ba…6628
sports · 40 markets active 23h ago
4.5score
+$19 +34%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$16
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)25 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 15 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 43¢ 45¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? No 50¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates in June? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Solana Sierra 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Florent Bax 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +31%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +122%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $2 +$8 +392%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $2 +$4 +189%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 53% +$19
other 34% −$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 23h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ $1 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 14¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 13¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 48¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 36¢ $1 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 41¢ $1 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $1 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 40¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $1 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 32¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $1 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 4d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +43.4% +29.8% 52% 52% +37.3%
≤30d 25 +43.4% +29.8% 52% 52% +37.3%
≤90d 25 +43.4% +29.8% 52% 52% +37.3%
all 25 +43.4% +29.8% 52% 52% +37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.8% 52% +37.3%
10% +17.4% 52% +24.1%
15% +6.0% 48% +12.2%
20% -4.4% 48% +1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.60 · official $15.60 (match) · 60 history records