trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 33% | 0% | -14.8% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -8.1% | -16.9% | 33% | 7% | -11.8% |
| all | 27 | -4.8% | -13.9% | 56% | 7% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.9% | 7% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -22.1% | 4% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -29.6% | 4% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 4% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 27 | $73 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $80 | −$16 | -20% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $47 | −$1 | -2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 24 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 23 | $29 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 23 | $19 | +$3 | +16% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 21 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 20 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 20 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 19 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 19 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 18 | $5 | −$1 | -25% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? | Mar 31 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 19 | $16 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Apr 30 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Mar 31 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 31 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 27 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 22 | $3 | +$2 | +76% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by March 31? | Mar 12 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 11 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 7? | Mar 11 | $12 | +$1 | +4% |