Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81bc…fcfa sports 70 markets active 3h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,181 (-1%) realized −$9,473 · open +$8,292
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate56%31W / 24L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,990per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$139,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,475
7 days−$2,950
14 days−$895
30 days−$6,328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$2,997
sports 25% −$5,316
crypto 3% +$2,195
world 0% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -28.9% -35.7% 25% 25% -44.6%
≤30d 45 -14.2% -22.4% 62% 22% -17.3%
≤90d 55 -21.9% -29.4% 56% 24% -19.6%
all 55 -21.9% -29.4% 56% 24% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 24% -19.6%
10% -36.1% 20% -27.3%
15% ← realistic here -42.3% 16% -34.3%
20% -48.0% 16% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
31.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$680 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$139,945
Realized−$9,473
Unrealized+$8,292
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions15
Markets (closed)55 / 70
History coverage57d
Avg bet$2,990
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $25,666 $34,589 +$8,923 (+35%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $12,486 $30,754 +$18,268 (+146%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $24,518 $16,299 −$8,219 (-34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $16,638 $15,119 −$1,519 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,516 $9,071 −$4,445 (-33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,129 $8,334 −$4,796 (-37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,254 $7,449 +$2,195 (+42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,593 $5,826 −$1,767 (-23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,881 $2,779 −$1,102 (-28%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,787 $2,730 +$943 (+53%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,281 $2,350 +$1,069 (+83%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,157 $1,586 −$570 (-26%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,687 $1,519 −$169 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $950 −$250 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $860 $591 −$269 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,640 −$840 -51%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,300 −$136 -10%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $762 −$750 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $761 −$750 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,501 −$898 -60%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $761 +$739 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $607 −$600 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $304 +$284 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $3,299 +$99 +3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $2,053 +$124 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $6,870 +$268 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $7,860 +$140 +2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $625 +$12 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,785 +$89 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$167 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $761 −$750 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $507 +$2 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2,032 +$2,053 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,002 +$52 +1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $406 +$335 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $505 −$500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,201 +$38 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3,013 +$184 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $500 +$15 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $503 +$122 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $501 +$42 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $506 +$2 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,501 −$1,266 -84%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,095 +$95 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,128 −$2,274 -55%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $823 +$25 +3%
Spread: Ukraine (-1.5) Jun 08 $588 +$12 +2%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,519 +$1,067 +70%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $588 +$27 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,500 +$1,000 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,500 −$900 -60%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $502 +$364 +72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $305 −$300 -98%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $103 +$26 +25%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $481 −$468 -97%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $300 +$300 +100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $402 +$58 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $800 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,164 3h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 47¢ $762 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $761 40h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $603 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,501 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $761 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $303 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $303 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $46 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $3,253 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $63 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1,980 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1,880 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $4,989 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $5 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $300 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $10 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $10 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $312 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $625 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $7,860 8d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2,104 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $15 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2,667 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $152 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $761 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 52¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139,945.42 · official $139,103.71 (match) · 2376 history records