Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81bf…67d5 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$297 (-40%) realized −$300 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$276
other 15% −$20
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -18.7% -26.5% 39% 39% -19.7%
≤30d 28 -24.0% -31.2% 39% 36% -25.8%
≤90d 30 -29.0% -35.8% 37% 33% -64.6%
all 78 -24.4% -31.6% 46% 45% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 45% -47.3%
10% -38.1% 33% -52.3%
15% -44.1% 28% -56.9%
20% -49.6% 18% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)78 / 84
History coverage236d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$4 +14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +138%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $12 −$12 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 $0 -7%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $5 $0 +10%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Qingdao Eagles May 02 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Mar 15 $3 +$3 +89%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Beijing Ducks Mar 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mar 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Shanxi Loongs Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $10 +$2 +19%
Clippers vs. Spurs Mar 08 $3 +$1 +37%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-6.5) Mar 07 $3 +$1 +41%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Heat Mar 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 06 $6 +$2 +28%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 06 $5 +$3 +67%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Feb 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 12h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 47h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 47h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $15 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 97¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.64 · official $16.65 (match) · 147 history records