Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81c0…29d4 sports 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 115L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$22
politics 19% −$2
other 19% −$3
crypto 10% −$5
economics 8% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 122 +0.0% -9.5% 6% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×20.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 115
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage140d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $76 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $269 +$17 +6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $312 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $193 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $129 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $108 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $88 +$7 +8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $38 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $38 7h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $38 14d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $39 14d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $36 27d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $36 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 91¢ $41 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 92¢ $42 39d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $42 120d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $42 120d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $41 120d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $41 120d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $39 120d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 120d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $37 120d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $37 120d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 120d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $41 120d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $1 120d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 120d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 120d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $38 120d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $40 120d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $37 120d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $37 120d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $37 120d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $37 120d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $39 120d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $39 120d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 500 history records