Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
81 0x81c9…56c3 crypto 388 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%202W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -3.6% -12.7% 52% 49% -9.4%
≤30d 388 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 49% -8.7%
≤90d 388 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 49% -8.7%
all 388 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 49% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 49% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 42% -17.5%
15% -25.1% 34% -25.4%
20% -32.5% 27% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses202 / 186
Open positions0
Markets (closed)388 / 388
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 634 history records