Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81d0…f1da weather 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$424 (-4%) realized −$415 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate60%115W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days−$364
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$122
other 12% −$435
tech 7% +$69
world 7% +$28
politics 6% +$6
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% −$51
culture 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 29 -1.0% -10.5% 41% 14% -24.7%
≤90d 174 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 14% -15.9%
all 191 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 18% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 18% -14.1%
10% -21.1% 14% -22.3%
15% -28.8% 13% -29.8%
20% -35.7% 9% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses115 / 76
Open positions6
Markets (closed)191 / 197
History coverage147d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 26? No 99¢ 98¢ $131 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 26? No 99¢ 93¢ $120 $113 −$7 (-6%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 26? No 99¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 26? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 26? No 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 26? No 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 24 $275 +$13 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $277 −$2 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 16 $929 −$359 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $63 −$54 -86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$81 +405%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 −$27 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$27 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$86 +541%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$56 +124%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 −$24 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$66 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $59 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 03 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 02 $84 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $78 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $123 −$7 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $99 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 26 $18 +$15 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 25 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? May 24 $3 $0 -7%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in May 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $5 $0 -5%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 24 $5 $0 -6%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May May 24 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 25? May 24 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? May 24 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 25? May 24 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 25? May 24 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $89 16m
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $131 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $288 46h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $109 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $142 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $24 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $276 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $277 9d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $277 9d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $63 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.79 · official $281.93 · 526 history records