Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81d0…b98d crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%37W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$5
sports 29% −$3
politics 23% −$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 61 +0.2% -9.3% 61% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses37 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage565d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $240 in May? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of March? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of November? Dec 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 07 $2,798 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $2,747 −$3 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 07 $2,651 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $250 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on Feb 28? Mar 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on Feb 28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $809 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $813 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21 Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Ripple above $3.10 on February 7? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 20 $1 $0 +1%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 12 $2 $0 +1%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $2 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Dec 11 $47 +$1 +2%
Ducks vs. Senators Dec 10 $4 $0 -0%
Colts vs. Broncos Dec 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? Dec 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-14? Dec 10 $23 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 10 $8 $0 -1%
Blues vs. Canucks Dec 10 $8 $0 -0%
Rams vs. 49ers Dec 10 $14 $0 -0%
Flames vs. Predators Dec 10 $25 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Islanders Dec 09 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $240 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 63d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $25 91d
Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 148d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 150d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $1 207d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $29 208d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,795 229d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,798 229d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,745 229d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,747 229d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,648 229d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,651 229d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $18 251d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 98¢ $2 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 99¢ $1 334d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 362d
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 394d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 395d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $2 433d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 457d
Will Solana hit $250 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 458d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 467d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 467d
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? BUY No 100¢ $2 481d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 482d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on Feb 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 482d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.27 · official $26.27 (match) · 162 history records