Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81da…a109
sports · 8 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$641,768 +97%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$634,812 · open −$259
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53,890
Realized+$634,812
Unrealized−$259
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3,599
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$82,866
Trades / day304.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$654,962
7 days+$634,812
14 days+$634,812
30 days+$634,812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 49¢ 50¢ $33,771 $34,115 +$345 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $20,378 $19,774 −$604 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20,150 $0 −$20,150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44,739 +$55,261 +124%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51,618 +$32,759 +64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41,923 +$36,077 +86%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $122,884 +$177,613 +144%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $326,748 +$353,252 +108%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20,632 −$20,150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$421,122
sports 33% +$213,431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $58 4m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $82 4m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 4m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $90 4m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $192 5m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 6m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $37 6m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 8m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $12 9m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 10m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $20 10m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $48 10m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $12 11m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 12m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $5 13m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 13m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $19 14m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $235 14m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $476 14m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $45 15m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 18m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $3 19m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $1 19m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $29 19m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $105 21m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 22m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $5 29m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $2 30m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $19 30m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $24 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +70.9% +54.7% 83% 83% +84.9%
≤30d 6 +70.9% +54.7% 83% 83% +84.9%
≤90d 6 +70.9% +54.7% 83% 83% +84.9%
all 6 +70.9% +54.7% 83% 83% +84.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover304.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.7% 83% +84.9%
10% +39.9% 83% +67.2%
15% ← realistic here +26.4% 83% +51.1%
20% +14.0% 83% +36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,889.90 · official $53,889.90 (match) · 992 history records