Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81db…9296 crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$21
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$3
crypto 42% −$8
other 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.8% -30.1% 36% 29% -21.6%
≤30d 65 -21.8% -29.3% 37% 31% -16.0%
≤90d 77 -15.3% -23.3% 39% 31% -12.0%
all 77 -15.3% -23.3% 39% 31% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 31% -12.0%
10% -30.7% 27% -20.5%
15% -37.4% 23% -28.1%
20% -43.5% 19% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage50d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -14%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +25%
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 25 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 25 $2 +$3 +166%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 25 $2 +$3 +208%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 25 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 37h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 12d
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 12d
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 12d
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.30 · official $5.30 (match) · 280 history records