Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81db…48f0 crypto 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$285 (+0%) realized +$95 · open +$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate62%70W / 43L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,874per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$5,907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$37,949
other 44% −$17,996
finance 6% +$86
sports 2% −$13
world 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -33.1% -39.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -6.4% -15.4% 83% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 104 -22.7% -30.1% 66% 1% -23.3%
all 113 -26.3% -33.3% 62% 1% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.3% 1% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -39.7% 0% -32.4%
15% -45.5% 0% -38.9%
20% -50.9% 0% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -45% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$1,367 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$5,907
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$190
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses70 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions40
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage93d
Avg bet$2,874
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,700 $2,701 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,695 $2,701 +$5 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 22¢ $8 $108 +$99 (+1173%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $8 $75 +$67 (+789%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $8 $67 +$59 (+694%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $8 $51 +$43 (+505%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $8 $39 +$30 (+358%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $8 $28 +$20 (+234%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $8 $28 +$20 (+234%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $8 $23 +$14 (+169%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $8 $14 +$5 (+62%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $8 $13 +$4 (+50%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $5 −$4 (-44%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-62%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-73%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$7 (-79%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-85%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-85%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$8 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5,301 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5,391 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $370 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5,001 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5,000 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,959 +$20 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,298 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,001 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5,001 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,177 +$46 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4,001 +$19 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $342 +$38 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4,920 +$80 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4,990 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5,100 +$37 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $4,771 +$324 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $4,301 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $5,690 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? Jun 03 $5,700 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 03 $1,928 +$68 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4,429 +$341 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5,736 −$1,377 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5,745 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5,457 +$37 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $5,695 −$5,695 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $5,726 −$5,726 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $2,698 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $2,500 +$5 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2,500 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2,501 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $2,501 −$12 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $2,501 +$14 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $2,500 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $2,500 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $6,501 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $2,501 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $5,587 +$16 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $3,501 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $3,500 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 03 $8,621 −$16 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 03 $478 +$35 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,700 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $2,696 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $479 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 24h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,906.92 · official $11,607.25 · 1564 history records