Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81dd…bd8f sports 96 markets active 3h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$305 (-9%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate56%54W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$19
14 days−$10
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$314
other 9% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -15.3% -23.4% 64% 29% -8.5%
≤30d 96 -17.6% -25.4% 56% 28% -17.9%
≤90d 96 -17.6% -25.4% 56% 28% -17.9%
all 96 -17.6% -25.4% 56% 28% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 28% -17.9%
10% -32.6% 20% -25.8%
15% -39.1% 11% -33.0%
20% -45.1% 8% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses54 / 42
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage29d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 +$5 +31%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 +$1 +12%
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Heide (+1.5) Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Heide vs. Choinski: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Sherif (-1.5) vs Ruggeri (+1.5) Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $18 +$2 +10%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $14 +$6 +38%
Set Handicap: Gurri (-1.5) vs Jover (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$10 +54%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $24 +$6 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $55 +$1 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $17 +$3 +19%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Wild vs. Hardt: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Thiago Seyboth Wild vs. Nick Hardt: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $53 +$7 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $24 +$6 +27%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $23 +$7 +31%
ITF Bucharest: Alexia-Shara Iancu vs Simona Ogescu Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $39 +$11 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 $0 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $32 +$2 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $17 +$5 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $43 +$7 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $15 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 89¢ $8 2h
Heide vs. Choinski: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 2h
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Heide (+1.5) BUY Heide 100¢ $29 2h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 91¢ $18 2h
Set Handicap: Sherif (-1.5) vs Ruggeri (+1.5) BUY Ruggeri 100¢ $16 3h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 72¢ $14 3h
Set Handicap: Gurri (-1.5) vs Jover (+1.5) BUY Jover 100¢ $50 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $9 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $11 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 15h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 100¢ $20 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $65 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $24 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $7 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $16 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $8 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $8 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $19 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 76¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 76¢ $9 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 76¢ $4 22h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $55 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $24 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $9 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records