Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81de…20d4 world 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$134 (-7%) realized −$90 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate47%37W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$17
14 days+$47
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$177
politics 30% +$24
other 12% −$28
culture 3% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 33% -4.6%
≤30d 79 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 20% -19.8%
≤90d 79 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 20% -19.8%
all 79 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 20% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 20% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 15% -27.5%
15% -32.8% 13% -34.5%
20% -39.4% 11% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$681
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses37 / 42
Open positions62
Markets (closed)79 / 141
History coverage26d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $155 $193 +$38 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $154 $161 +$6 (+4%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 84¢ $32 $31 −$2 (-5%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 32¢ 23¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-28%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 93¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 99¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+255%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 99¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+162%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes 85¢ 93¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 87¢ 83¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 84¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 21¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+135%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $72 +$5 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $31 −$8 -28%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +233%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $163 +$26 +16%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 14 $23 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $4 −$3 -90%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $2 $0 +27%
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governo Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dusty Johnson and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Govern Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $36 +$10 +27%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $28 +$14 +50%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $7 +$11 +157%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 07 $1 +$7 +487%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $1 −$1 -52%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $11 −$5 -52%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$2 -24%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 02 $6 $0 -3%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $52 −$6 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 02 $67 +$5 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -89%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $132 −$128 -97%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 30 $5 +$1 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 30 $100 −$40 -40%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 30 $15 +$2 +11%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 30 $13 +$16 +126%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $8 −$7 -85%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 −$2 -46%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 26 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in May 2026? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $2 26m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 30m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $681.38 · official $680.86 (match) · 611 history records