Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81e0…4cf9 world 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%39W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$26
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$48
other 24% +$1
politics 18% +$3
sports 9% −$2
economics 3% +$1
crypto 3% +$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 28 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 80 +0.1% -9.5% 35% 2% -10.0%
all 106 +0.3% -9.2% 37% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses39 / 67
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage303d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $128 −$3 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $139 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $160 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $248 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $169 +$15 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $212 +$8 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $122 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $337 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $191 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $101 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $255 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $329 −$5 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $41 −$1 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $216 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $189 −$10 -5%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $85 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $5 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $128 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $119 +$8 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $344 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $325 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $217 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $265 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $126 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $108 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $453 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $2 $0 -7%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $204 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $125 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $128 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $128 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $128 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $125 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $125 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $114 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $24 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $138 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $138 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $138 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $138 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $138 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $65 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $72 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $137 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $138 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $137 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $46 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $111 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $111 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 469 history records