Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:14:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81e1…5d5f crypto 74 markets active 1d ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$144 (+0%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%71W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$613per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$27
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$127
crypto 20% +$9
sports 0% −$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 17 -4.4% -13.5% 94% 6% -9.0%
all 74 -3.5% -12.7% 96% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 1% -9.3%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$610) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.97 per $1 lost it wins $5.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses71 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage206d
Avg bet$613
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $3,072 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $3,069 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $3,066 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,150 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? Jun 19 $340 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3,023 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $2,991 +$59 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,963 +$27 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,949 +$15 +0%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 4? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 May 04 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? Apr 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 9? Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? Mar 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 8? Jan 09 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? Jan 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 7? Jan 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 7? Jan 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 7? Jan 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 8? Jan 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $2,719 +$3 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 3? Jan 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 6? Jan 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 6? Jan 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on January 6? Jan 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 6? Jan 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 6? Jan 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $2,870 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 4? Jan 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 4? Jan 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 4? Jan 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 4? Jan 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $2,804 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 3? Jan 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 04 $2,800 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 2? Jan 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 2? Jan 02 $610 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 2? Jan 02 $719 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 02 $1,513 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,072 32h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,069 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,069 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,066 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $573 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,150 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $340 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,023 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 8d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,991 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,943 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,949 9d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $9 51d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $23 51d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 57d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $6 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 104d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? BUY No 97¢ $11 104d
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 166d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 166d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $29 168d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 7? BUY No 100¢ $13 168d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 8? BUY No 99¢ $4 168d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? BUY No 100¢ $8 168d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 168d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $15 169d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $33 169d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $22 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records