Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81e3…0931 crypto 1295 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$384 (-3%) realized −$389 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%773W / 520L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day116.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$427
14 days−$521
30 days−$543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$464
sports 4% +$56
weather 2% −$130
other 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 745 -6.2% -15.1% 61% 51% -15.0%
≤30d 1293 -5.6% -14.5% 60% 48% -13.9%
≤90d 1293 -5.6% -14.5% 60% 48% -13.9%
all 1293 -5.6% -14.5% 60% 48% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 48% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 33% -22.1%
15% -30.2% 19% -29.6%
20% -37.0% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$389
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses773 / 520
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1293 / 1295
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day116.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 12¢ 44¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+262%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $27 +$36 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.56 · official $10.56 (match) · 3500 history records