Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x81e4…8ec2 sports 87 markets active 4h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+7%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%40W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$112
14 days+$231
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$219
other 46% −$31
world 2% −$35
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 41% +8.9%
≤30d 81 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 48% -1.6%
≤90d 81 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 48% -1.6%
all 81 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 48% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 48% -1.6%
10% -20.7% 48% -11.1%
15% -28.4% 48% -19.6%
20% -35.4% 42% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 41
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 87
History coverage18d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 29 $15 +$17 +114%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$18 +90%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $20 +$17 +87%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$22 +110%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$24 +238%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 +$13 +50%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$21 +70%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$10 +67%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $41 +$32 +79%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$1 -5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 +$32 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$35 +70%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $81 +$38 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$40 +388%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$1 -4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$16 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 +$13 +83%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $5 13h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 46¢ $15 13h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $10 33h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 33h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina leading at halftime? BUY 53¢ $20 47h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 47h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 48¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes $5 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 47¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $25 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 41¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $15 4d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 26¢ $15 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.58 · official $4.58 (match) · 130 history records