Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x81e9…b0ca sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$6 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.3% +0.7% 62% 62% -9.9%
≤30d 8 +11.3% +0.7% 62% 62% -9.9%
≤90d 8 +11.3% +0.7% 62% 62% -9.9%
all 8 +11.3% +0.7% 62% 62% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 62% -9.9%
10% -8.9% 62% -18.5%
15% -17.7% 50% -26.4%
20% -25.8% 38% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$36 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 52¢ 46¢ $41 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $42 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $45 +$13 +29%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $27 +$19 +70%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 22 $44 +$16 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $34 +$35 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $48 +$25 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $57 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $52 −$52 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.12 · official $36.12 (match) · 15 history records