Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
81 0x81ed…6879 other 229 markets active 22h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$609 (+1%) realized +$609 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%130W / 98L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$167
other 22% −$66
politics 19% +$283
world 9% +$15
sports 8% +$643
tech 7% +$82
economics 1% +$1
finance 0% −$184
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 25% -27.9%
≤30d 4 -52.6% -57.1% 25% 25% -27.9%
≤90d 64 -30.6% -37.2% 39% 28% -11.3%
all 228 -3.2% -12.5% 57% 35% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 35% -8.7%
10% -20.8% 30% -17.5%
15% -28.5% 25% -25.4%
20% -35.5% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$43 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses130 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage254d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $150 −$9 -6%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 09 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $94 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 26 $101 −$99 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $100 +$101 +101%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 24 $100 +$49 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $56 +$43 +76%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw Apr 19 $47 +$105 +223%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $50 +$31 +62%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $5,933 +$37 +1%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $710 +$10 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 12 $171 +$3 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $989 +$4 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $2,213 +$11 +0%
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 11 $1,122 +$207 +18%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 10 $308 +$48 +15%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-21? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-21? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-01? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 23? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: DashSkins vs Keyd (BO3) - PGL Astana: South American C Apr 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-23? Apr 07 $34 −$29 -86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 40¢ $102 21h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $51 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 4d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 32d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $83 40d
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 40d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 61¢ $109 40d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 44d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY Heroic 56¢ $101 53d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 54d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY Monte 49¢ $100 55d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY NIP 67¢ $41 56d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY NIP 67¢ $10 56d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY NIP 67¢ $49 56d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $56 60d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 61d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw BUY Yes 31¢ $47 61d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $42 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $7 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $5 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $35 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 78¢ $98 62d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A SELL Vitality 81¢ $81 65d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 50¢ $50 65d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 65d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 81¢ $25 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 81¢ $670 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1110 history records