Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81ee…cb76 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%12W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$4
sports 27% +$1
crypto 18% +$4
politics 18% +$1
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses12 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage97d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $511 +$2 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $507 +$3 +1%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,00 Jun 17 $506 $0 +0%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? May 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4? May 07 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 20? Apr 21 $505 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 6 above $180? Apr 11 $505 +$1 +0%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $504 $0 +0%
Will Tanille Johnson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? Mar 31 $504 +$1 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $503 +$1 +0%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 19 $503 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 100¢ $511 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $507 2d
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,00 BUY No 100¢ $506 35d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $200 42d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 42d
Will MrBeast's video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4? BUY No 100¢ $500 48d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $505 65d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 6 above $180? BUY Yes 100¢ $505 74d
Magic vs. Mavericks BUY Magic 100¢ $504 80d
Will Tanille Johnson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? BUY No 100¢ $504 90d
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 100¢ $503 95d
76ers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $503 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $513.05 · official $513.05 (match) · 24 history records