Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81ee…7a99 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,906 (-17%) realized −$1,711 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$40
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,177
politics 12% −$675
sports 8% +$22
economics 3% +$49
crypto 3% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.8% -18.4% 59% 55% -7.4%
≤30d 26 +63.1% +47.6% 58% 54% -17.4%
≤90d 27 +57.1% +42.1% 56% 52% -43.2%
all 31 +46.7% +32.7% 52% 48% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.7% 48% -27.0%
10% +20.0% 42% -34.0%
15% +8.4% 29% -40.4%
20% -2.2% 26% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +94% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$161 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$2,167
Realized−$1,711
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage225d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1,000 $720 −$280 (-28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $330 $376 +$46 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $440 $374 −$65 (-15%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $166 $204 +$38 (+23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $176 $164 −$13 (-7%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots Yes 57¢ 100¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+75%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 65¢ 100¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $51 −$27 -53%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $101 +$84 +83%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 +$14 +55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$265 +104%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$16 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 +$19 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $920 −$920 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $350 +$49 +14%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 10 $395 −$395 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 08 $240 −$9 -4%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 08 $4,754 −$228 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $24 9m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2h
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $51 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $25 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 6h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $101 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $10 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 77¢ $50 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 30¢ $35 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 25¢ $31 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,167.37 · official $2,170.20 (match) · 623 history records