Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81ef…5f9b
sports · 436 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$203 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$197 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses234 / 201
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)435 / 436
History coverage84d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 435 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$135
14 days−$165
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 46¢ 38¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Trail Blazers 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage MOUZ 51¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 57¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Tundra Esports 41¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Heroic 85¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Utah 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BNK FEARX 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 47¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner REKONIX 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Xtreme Gaming 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Team Falcons 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 66¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Magic 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Utah 56¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 HANJIN BRION 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Lakers 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Red Force 48¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$5 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$6 +81%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $58 −$33 -58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$16 -44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 −$31 -77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 −$28 -79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $24 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $44 −$26 -58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $107 −$4 -4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $43 −$17 -38%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $17 −$6 -37%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $27 −$12 -44%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $11 −$1 -12%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $34 −$2 -6%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 26 $22 +$1 +7%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $10 −$2 -17%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $49 +$33 +66%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $12 −$11 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 25 $5 +$2 +31%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $11 −$11 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $4 +$1 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $66 −$3 -5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $4 +$1 +41%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $3 $0 +12%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $40 +$24 +60%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $31 −$2 -6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $29 +$12 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $17 −$9 -55%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $7 +$1 +20%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $12 +$10 +90%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $17 +$15 +88%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $14 +$7 +48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $9 −$4 -45%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $10 −$1 -9%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $7 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $24 +$2 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $34 +$15 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% −$167
crypto 12% +$1
other 1% −$31
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $8 8m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 55¢ $8 8m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 83¢ $12 12m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 71¢ $12 17m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $10 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 40¢ $10 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 60¢ $15 36m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 78¢ $15 50m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 74¢ $15 59m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 58¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 75¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 80¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 58¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 33¢ $9 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $18 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 57¢ $13 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $13 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $7 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 16¢ $7 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $38 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 63¢ $17 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $5 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 69¢ $5 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 65¢ $16 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 93¢ $27 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $5 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 62¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.3% -36.0% 43% 36% -50.1%
≤30d 104 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 50% -15.6%
≤90d 435 -3.8% -13.0% 54% 49% -12.8%
all 435 -3.8% -13.0% 54% 49% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 49% -12.8%
10% -21.3% 42% -21.1%
15% -28.9% 33% -28.8%
20% -35.9% 26% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.28 · official $6.28 (match) · 1190 history records