Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81f0…cbb1 sports 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17,229 (+3%) realized +$17,210 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate70%176W / 76L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$2,619per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1,111est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$12,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$557
7 days+$3,839
14 days+$4,825
30 days+$6,018
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$19,111
other 12% −$2,344
politics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.1% +8.7% 100% 100% +7.8%
≤30d 20 +11.8% +1.2% 85% 85% +3.9%
≤90d 140 -38.0% -43.9% 46% 45% -30.9%
all 252 +0.3% -9.3% 70% 68% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 68% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 43% -16.1%
15% -25.9% 25% -24.2%
20% -33.2% 17% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$3,550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +46% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$857 vs −$1,763 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$12,385
Realized+$17,210
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses176 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,111
Open positions2
Markets (closed)252 / 254
History coverage174d
Avg bet$2,619
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $10,561 $10,498 −$64 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 80¢ $1,804 $1,888 +$83 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,014 +$557 +18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,390 +$999 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,804 +$576 +12%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,052 +$562 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5,762 +$1,145 +20%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2,031 +$493 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $1,078 +$494 +46%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 02 $1,171 +$511 +44%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $2,910 +$505 +17%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $950 +$230 +24%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) May 27 $658 +$261 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $989 +$473 +48%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 27 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries May 27 $3,656 +$497 +14%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) May 25 $556 −$553 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 25 $1,056 +$272 +26%
Will Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw? May 25 $1,556 +$401 +26%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 23 $853 −$847 -99%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 23 $1,516 −$1,505 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 22 $550 +$420 +76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2,948 +$807 +27%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $6,338 +$838 +13%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $2,401 +$489 +20%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1,316 +$208 +16%
Will AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 05 $1,937 +$521 +27%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $6,481 −$6,453 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $5,181 −$5,152 -99%
Will FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 03 $2,959 +$560 +19%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $9,585 −$707 -7%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 02 $3,877 −$3,862 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 02 $2,768 +$607 +22%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $18,794 +$2,026 +11%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1,956 −$1,943 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 30 $316 +$360 +114%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $7,843 +$2,240 +29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 30 $6,858 −$6,847 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 29 $61 −$60 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 29 $169 −$167 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $14,093 +$2,625 +19%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $2,398 −$2,384 -99%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $2,724 +$580 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $9,829 +$2,236 +23%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-24? Apr 27 $1,135 +$109 +10%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $1,507 +$541 +36%
Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? Apr 27 $3,576 +$814 +23%
Will SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Apr 27 $3,576 +$814 +23%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $3,715 +$721 +19%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 24 $3,693 −$3,664 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 24 $1,153 +$526 +46%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 23 $323 −$318 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $2,520 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $2,698 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $2,699 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $2,699 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $3,014 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $1,817 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $4,804 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $2,195 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $2,195 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2,052 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $2,874 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $2,889 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $2,031 9d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 68¢ $1,078 10d
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 85¢ $2,910 17d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $1,171 18d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $950 22d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 67¢ $989 23d
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 87¢ $942 24d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) BUY Athletics 82¢ $556 24d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 65¢ $1,010 24d
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 88¢ $298 24d
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 88¢ $59 24d
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 88¢ $22 24d
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 88¢ $2,335 24d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 71¢ $658 24d
Will Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1,556 25d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $853 26d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1,056 26d
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1,516 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,385.40 · official $12,349.78 (match) · 639 history records