Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x81f0…0ea2 crypto 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,311 (-11%) realized −$2,318 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%99W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days+$898
14 days+$836
30 days+$836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$2,766
other 20% +$672
tech 16% −$133
finance 14% +$508
politics 4% −$552
sports 2% +$373
world 1% −$29
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +43.5% +29.9% 82% 82% +32.2%
≤30d 26 +34.0% +21.3% 77% 77% +24.1%
≤90d 27 +37.8% +24.7% 78% 78% +34.6%
all 192 -17.4% -25.2% 52% 41% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 41% -18.4%
10% -32.4% 29% -26.2%
15% -38.9% 25% -33.3%
20% -44.9% 23% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$81 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$1,018
Realized−$2,318
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses99 / 93
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)192 / 207
History coverage260d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $200 $235 +$35 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 52¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? Yes 59¢ 1¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $61 +$126 +206%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $31 +$54 +176%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $131 +$30 +23%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 Jun 18 $102 +$101 +99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $300 +$408 +136%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4? Mar 11 $50 +$86 +170%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 25? Mar 04 $50 +$50 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 24? Feb 25 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 24 $189 +$10 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Feb 24 $103 −$103 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Feb 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 09 $50 +$47 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET Feb 09 $300 −$178 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 09 $100 −$60 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 09 $200 −$76 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 09 $100 +$81 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4AM ET Feb 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 09 $59 −$51 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3AM ET Feb 09 $150 −$132 -88%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $135 +$23 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 09 $226 −$150 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 09 $250 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 48¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 38¢ $51 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 49¢ $102 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 32¢ $102 11h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 12h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $31 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $31 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $31 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $131 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 49¢ $102 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,018.43 · official $1,168.43 · 516 history records