Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81f2…1b2f other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$19
politics 24% −$11
sports 13% −$50
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 136 -3.3% -12.5% 10% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage132d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $305 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $232 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $221 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 06 $243 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $420 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $267 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $242 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $251 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $232 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $236 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $465 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $457 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $470 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $280 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $279 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $225 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $243 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 24 $210 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $466 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $268 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $482 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $494 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $238 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $40 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $40 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $218 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $218 23d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $232 36d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $232 40d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 43d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 43d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $255 43d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $255 44d
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $243 44d
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $243 45d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $230 46d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 46d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $267 46d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $267 46d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $224 46d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $224 46d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $245 46d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $245 46d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $196 47d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $196 47d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 386 history records