Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x81f3…ad5d other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$7
politics 25% −$7
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
sports 3% −$49
crypto 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.4% +6.2% 17% 17% -8.8%
≤30d 17 +6.1% -4.0% 12% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 102 -1.7% -11.1% 12% 8% -9.7%
all 102 -1.7% -11.1% 12% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 8% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 8% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage89d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $120 $121 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $463 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $725 −$1 -0%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $228 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $227 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $243 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $234 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $228 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $222 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $489 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $446 $0 -0%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $457 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $474 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $235 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $85 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $10 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $120 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $53 16d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $53 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 19d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 20d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.72 · official $205.72 (match) · 312 history records